There are fierce explosions in Kiev again, Russia and Ukraine start a "drone showdown" in winter?
Fierce explosions and air raid sirens once again rang through Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. From around 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. local time on December 14, many buildings in the Shevchenkovsky District, an industrial area in central and western Kiev, were attacked and damaged. The Ukrainian military subsequently stated that it shot down 13 Russian drones near Kiev in the morning.
Since October, drone strikes have gradually become the "routine method" used by the Russian army to attack the Ukrainian capital. According to Ukraine, these drones were launched from the Sea of Azov, passed through the territory of eastern Ukraine and reached Kiev, targeting mainly urban infrastructure.
Since the Crimean bridge explosion in October, the Russian military has launched six large-scale air strikes on energy infrastructure across Ukraine. On December 12, after the latest attack, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in a phone call with US President Biden that the attack had destroyed 50% of Ukraine's energy facilities.
However, unlike the "one-sided" situation in the air and air confrontation when the Russian army began its "special military operation" in February this year, the Ukrainian army has also continued to escalate its attacks on Russian drones. On December 5, explosions were heard from two Russian air force bases about 300 kilometers away from the Russian-Ukrainian border. One of them is Russia's largest strategic bomber base. This is the first time in ten months that fighting has spread to Russia's interior. The Russian Defense Ministry said the Ukrainian military used Soviet-era jet drones to plan the two attacks.
On November 25, Ukrainian soldiers tested a drone in Bakhmut, Ukraine. Picture/The Paper
With the Russian-Ukrainian frontline war situation returning to a stalemate, frequent drone attacks mean that "the situation may get worse." Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Ertunov told China News Weekly on the evening of December 13 that Ukraine will continue to expand the geographical scope of the conflict by striking targets deep in Russian territory; and Russia will continue to attack Ukraine’s infrastructure.
"Both sides are unlikely to give in. The only thing to look forward to is that there may be some undisclosed 'agreement' to avoid damage to hydropower or nuclear power plants. But I don't think we will see that in the near future The conflict was de-escalated.”
From “scouts” to “suicide missiles”
The first time Kiev was attacked by a large-scale drone was on October 17. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that on the morning of that day, 28 Russian drones were loaded with warheads and flew towards Kiev. The Ukrainian army's anti-aircraft fire intercepted most of the "suicide missiles", but many buildings in the center of Kiev were still hit, and at least three civilians were killed in the attack.
In the "comprehensive war" since February this year, the drones of Russia and Ukraine have been present from the beginning, but their initial role was mainly reconnaissance and auxiliary attacks. At that time, large bombers and missile units undertook the Russian army's long-range strike missions, and the Russian army's own institutional problems also restricted the use of drones.
The 9th issue of this year's "Army Collected Works", a military theory journal sponsored by the Russian Ministry of Defense, published a paper co-authored by two retired officers *** stating that fire support operations on the Ukrainian battlefield have expanded to land and air , three-dimensional space in the sky, but there is a lack of coordination among the various services and arms of the Russian army. Even "after several months of fighting, deep coordination between drones, artillery, and motorized infantry has still not been achieved."
On the other hand, the Ukrainian Air Force began sending drones in March to attempt long-range attacks. However, early attempts were intercepted by Russian air defense fire, or deviated from the target due to navigation reasons, and even old drones It turned and flew over the airspace of European allies and crashed in Croatia.
This Tu-141 large reconnaissance drone is technically the first generation of reconnaissance drones in the world and served in the Soviet Air Force from the 1970s to the 1980s. After the outbreak of the Donbas War in 2014, the Ukrainian Air Force renovated the Tu-14s that had been retired from the warehouse and put them into service in order to enhance its air strike capabilities. The Tu-141 has a range of up to 1,000 kilometers, but compared with the new attack drones introduced by the Ukrainian army from Turkey, the flight altitude is low, the bomb load is small, and the operating accuracy is poor, so it is not favored by military analysts.
However, as the war situation changes, drones have gradually become the "protagonist" on the battlefield. The Ukrainian army, which has begun a large-scale counterattack, needs effective air strike power, and drones are the only option. Since July, the Ukrainian army has repeatedly tried to use modified commercial drones to carry ammunition to attack Russian rear targets such as the Crimean Peninsula, and once flew to the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. Although these attacks failed to cause substantial impact, the Ukrainian army accumulated experience in long-distance drone attacks.
On December 5, the Ukrainian army used Tu-141 to carry out precision strikes on two inland air force bases of the Russian army, showing that these old equipment have been further transformed and upgraded. In the future, the Ukrainian army may continue to use modified commercial drones with strong concealment but short range to attack the Russian army's front-line positions, the Crimean Peninsula and the Russian-Ukrainian border areas. At the same time, it will take advantage of the Tu-141's "thousand-mile attack" to attack Russia. Retaliatory strikes against local targets.
The Soviet Union has built more than 140 Tu-141s, but how many Tu-141s are currently being deployed by the Ukrainian army is still a mystery. Among the two Russian military bases attacked this time, Engels Base only had 14 Tu-160s, which together with the Russian Navy's ballistic missile nuclear submarines constitute Russia's most deterrent strategic nuclear force.
Diaghilev Air Base is the only Russian military Il-78 tanker base. Any damage caused by the Ukrainian drones may be a victory for "a small fight for a big one".
A former Russian Air Force officer pointed out to the media that if the Ukrainian army continues to use drones to attack inland bases, even causing the destruction of valuable IL-78 tankers, "the impact will be greater than that of strategic bombers being attacked." Bigger”. The officer also said that one of the main problems facing the Russian Air Force is that many aircraft are not stored in hangars and are easy targets for drones.
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Who has the upper hand in drone strikes?
Compared to the Ukrainian army, the Russian army used drones to carry out important air strikes later. Until mid-October, the Russian military’s attacks on infrastructure in Kiev and across Ukraine were still carried out in the form of large-scale missile attacks. On October 11 alone, the Russian army launched 75 missiles at Kiev, of which 41 were intercepted by Ukraine. The Ukrainian High Command believes that the Russian military has launched "thousands of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles" in the past ten months.
But problems also arise. "Initially, Russia believed that the 'special military operation' would end quickly, failing to recognize the amazing resilience of the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian society," Kortunov said. "Now, people are starting to think about how to adjust their decision-making to effectively respond to this Long War."
This includes adjustments to the supply and use of weapons. Since September, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made new decisions on this issue many times, reorganizing the military-industrial complex and legislating to protect the production and upstream and downstream supply of military industrial enterprises. But as of December 9, Putin still admitted to reporters that the armament issue was "far from being completely resolved" and that he discussed the issue of military supply almost every day.
In this context, the Ukrainian army believes that the Russian army adjusted its air strikes to cope with the reality of insufficient cruise missile inventory and production capacity. It is undeniable that the missiles put into use by the Russian army on the Ukrainian battlefield cost millions of dollars each. However, data disclosed by Western think tanks show that the attack drones modified and used by the Russian army cost only 3 About ten thousand US dollars.
At present, the total number of drones that the Russian army can invest on the battlefield is also a mystery. The Russian government has stated many times that the main drone used by the Russian military is the domestic product Geran-2. Ukrainian and Western governments believe that these drones are actually Shahed-136 imported from Iran, or at least have the same design and performance parameters. Ukrainian intelligence agencies claim that the Russian military maintains more than 2,400 drones of this type.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahiyan stated on November 5 that there are indeed Iranian-produced drones on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. These drones were part of the "special military operation" launched by the Russian army in February this year. "After the previous delivery, Iran did not sell any more drones to any party.
Who has the upper hand in the drone showdown between Russia and Ukraine? Judging from the number of attacks, the Russian army is more active. In addition to the attack on Kiev on December 14, the Russian army on the southern battlefield has launched drone attacks on the important Ukrainian towns of Odessa, Kherson and other places for many consecutive days, up to more than ten times a day. During the attack on December 10, Ukraine claimed that 10 Russian drones were intercepted and the rest completed the attack mission, resulting in "damage to critical infrastructure" in Odessa. The American think tank "Institute of Warfare" predicts that while the Ukrainian army is improving its old drones, the Russian army is also modifying its drones for winter warfare.
However, if compared with the previous large-scale air and missile attacks by the Russian army, the Russian army’s drone attacks on Kiev had a high proportion of interceptions and the damage caused was very limited. On October 11, the Russian army launched a large-scale missile attack on Kiev, which temporarily caused water and power outages and subway outages in Kiev, resulting in 14 deaths and 97 injuries. On October 17, the Russian army carried out a drone air strike on Kiev, killing three people and destroying no important facilities.
On December 14, the Russian army carried out its latest drone air strike on Kiev. In addition to causing partial damage to several administrative buildings and residential buildings, it caused no casualties and did not hit key targets. Obviously, if the purpose of the Russian air strike is to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure on a large scale or to put greater pressure on Ukrainian society, the drone attack has not completed the task, and the long-range sneak attack of the Ukrainian drone is more likely to achieve "a small risk." big".
However, whether the Ukrainian army can further gain an advantage in drone confrontation depends on whether Western military assistance can be upgraded. U.S. State Department spokesperson Price specifically reiterated on December 6 that the United States has provided Ukraine with weapons to “defend itself, defend its sovereignty, and defend its independence” since February. “We have not provided Ukraine with weapons to be used in Russia. Weapons. We are very clear that the assistance is defensive materials." This is also considered to be one of the reasons why the Ukrainian army transformed and used weapons from the former Soviet Union.
On December 9, "The Times" quoted U.S. Pentagon officials as saying that the U.S. Department of Defense was changing its assessment of the war situation between Russia and Ukraine, acquiescing to Ukraine's attacks on Russian targets, and believed that this would not trigger a "nuclear reaction". However, it is not yet known whether this "tacit approval" means that the United States and Western countries will further help Ukraine upgrade its air and long-range strike capabilities. The report only revealed that the United States is now "more likely" to provide long-range weapons to the Ukrainian army.
"Weapons based on new physical principles"
UAV confrontation is only part of the "cyclical escalation" of the Russia-Ukraine war situation. Since the Russian army withdrew from the city of Kherson in November, it has fallen into a new stalemate.
On the main battlefield in Donbas, the two sides were still fighting fiercely around the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut as of December 7. The tug of war here has lasted for half a year. On other fronts, the Ukrainian army has repeatedly tried to counterattack from the northern side of Zaporizhia Oblast, but no significant progress has been made so far. After about 10 months of attrition, both sides seemed unable to launch a "winter decisive battle."
However, the expectation that "peace will come during the stalemate" once raised by some Russian and Ukrainian people has not become a reality. Instead, the two sides escalated the confrontation through air strikes and asymmetric counterattacks. In addition to using drones to attack Russian targets, the Ukrainian military has recently increased its attacks on Russian targets on the Russian-Ukrainian border and used Western aid firepower to intensify bombing of Russian-controlled areas in Donbas. Russian data shows that as of December 12, more than 4,000 civilians in Russian-occupied Donetsk had been killed by Ukrainian army shelling.
On the other hand, Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Russian National Security Council, revealed on December 11 that Russia is strengthening "the production of the most powerful weapons", including "weapons based on new physical principles." This is the third time in recent days that top Russian officials have hinted that they may deploy new strategic weapons into the Ukrainian battlefield.
On November 30, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated at a ministerial meeting that the Russian military will accelerate the development and deployment of next-generation advanced weapons on the battlefield; Borisov, the former deputy prime minister in charge of the weapons industry Later, he told the media that this may point to hypersonic weapons, robotic systems and "weapons based on new physical principles."
"Weapons based on new physical principles" is a new concept proposed in Russia's 2012 military reform. Russian President Vladimir Putin once defined it in a signed article as a new weapon developed based on physical principles such as radiation, geophysics, waves, genetics, and psychophysics. Retired Russian Major General Vladimir Belous listed more specific directions in his paper, including genetic weapons, climate and weather weapons, psychological warfare weapons, sonic weapons, etc. Some of these low-intensity weapons are considered by Western analysts to be Already used in the Ukrainian battlefield. The main characteristics of these new weapons are that they can not only destroy the opponent's effective forces on a large scale, but also avoid "political censure like nuclear weapons."
Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies are eager to analyze the specific meaning of high-level Russian statements: Is it more unconventional warfare intervention, or is this itself part of "psychological warfare"? The "Institute of War Research" believes that Russia's recent statements are both false and true. For example, the rumors about launching an attack from the Belarusian border to northern Ukraine are "false". The purpose is to contain the Ukrainian military strength near Kiev, and ultimately to control the Donbass. The "decisive battlefield" creates a favorable environment for the Russian army.
Analysts believe that both Russia and Ukraine are currently facing the pressure of being "inadequately prepared" for a long-term war. The Ukrainian military is facing an aid crisis due to limited stockpiles of Soviet-made weapons and ammunition by NATO member states. In this context, winter may become a time for both parties to "save their wealth." Ukraine will strengthen asymmetric warfare and promote the implementation of a long-term aid agreement with the West; Russia will try to maintain its military advantage and wait for new weapons and effective forces to launch a counterattack in the spring. Kortunov revealed that there are still voices in Russia worried that "there may be another military mobilization" in early 2023.
However, "saving family wealth" does not mean the situation is downgraded, but may lead to an exacerbation of the humanitarian crisis. Taking into account the possibility of sustained long-range strikes by the Russian army, Kiev Mayor Klitschko recently warned that problems with Ukraine's power supply, water supply, heating, and network interruptions "may continue until spring."
Author: Cao Ran