Can earthquakes be predicted? It is said that no one died in a county during the Tangshan earthquake?
Earthquake prediction is divided into three levels: long-term prediction, medium-term prediction and imminent earthquake prediction.
Long-term prediction: long-term prediction: refers to the regional prediction of destructive earthquakes that may occur in the next decade. Mainly based on local seismic geology, historical seismic activity background and geophysical background. Long-term prediction is mainly to provide earthquake trend basis for the people's governments of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government to determine key earthquake monitoring and defense areas, and to provide reference for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction work such as national economic development and land use.
Medium-term prediction: Medium-term prediction refers to the prediction of the region and intensity where destructive earthquakes may occur in the next 1-2 years. It is based on regional seismic activity and precursory observation data of various trends. Medium-term prediction provides a basis for dividing earthquake risk areas, carrying out medium-term earthquake damage prevention and earthquake emergency preparedness.
Definition of impending earthquake prediction: the prediction of destructive earthquakes that may occur in a small area within a few days is called impending earthquake prediction.
Experts have said that China is in the forefront of the world in medium and long-term earthquake prediction!
But the prediction of impending earthquake is a worldwide problem. Inaccurate prediction causes people's psychological panic and disrupts normal life and work; However, the sudden arrival of a major earthquake will be a devastating blow to those who are unprepared. So China's approach is: I would rather not report it.
The well-known Tangshan earthquake:. . . Geng Qingguo also studied the method of short-term and imminent prediction from the perspective of meteorology. 1in may, 975, he wrote his first related paper, communicated with the Beijing earthquake team inside and outside, and formally put forward the concepts, characteristics and earthquake examples of five indicators of short-term and imminent meteorological element anomalies within 30 days before the earthquake. On this basis, he predicted the Tangshan earthquake within 30 days in Beijing, Tianjin, Tang, Bohai and Zhang.
The following is a reference:
"China earthquake community knows that there is a' Tang' who dares to speak. 1968, Tangshan earthquake prevention work started, and Yang set out to set up Tangshan earthquake monitoring network. In recent years, he has established more than 40 monitoring points in Tangshan, and each monitoring point has a special person in charge, reporting data to him every day. Although he was not appointed as the director of Tangshan Earthquake Office, he was actually in charge.
Among more than 40 monitoring stations, there are monitoring stations in factories and mines, as well as monitoring stations in schools. Although it is an amateur monitoring team, most of the monitoring personnel are undergraduates, who not only understand business, but also have a sense of responsibility. Since the end of 1975, abnormal conditions have been detected at all monitoring points. Some monitors from Majiagou Mine Seismological Station in Kailuan, Lu Xingya from Shanhaiguan No.1 Middle School, Hou from Laoting Chengguan Middle School (known as Laoting Hongwei Middle School in the Cultural Revolution), etc ... based on their own measurements and calculations, released the prediction of the upcoming earthquake in Tangshan. At the beginning of 1976, according to the observation of more than 40 seismic stations in Tangshan, Yang made a short-term prediction at the Tangshan earthquake prevention work conference: within five kilometers of Tangshan, a strong earthquake of magnitude 5 to 7 will occur in July and August or other months in the second half of the year.
However, just before the earthquake, I received a notice that Yang went to work at school. At the moment when a major earthquake was expected to break out, Yang was forced to leave the crucial post of earthquake prediction, leaving only two people who were not familiar with their business on duty.
"From 1968 to 1976, it is very difficult to lay such a large monitoring network. I dare not blink, and I work day and night to catch up with this strong earthquake. But after years of ups and downs, it was not reported in the end. Lost 240,000 people, miserable! " Facing Zhang Qingzhou, the old man cried. Tears rolled down one after another on the old face.
Yang's frankness tore the first hole in the historical truth. His frankness also surprised Zhang Qingzhou.
"Do you know why I want to talk to you?" The old man said slowly, "I am old and in poor health." If you don't say it again, it will be too late. "
"On the one hand, it is the black hat of the county party secretary, and on the other hand, it is the life of 470,000 people."
Before the Tangshan earthquake, all kinds of omens and scientific parameters indicated that there would be a major earthquake, but no one dared to predict the specific date. The predictions of experts from all walks of life were suppressed by the state in order to maintain stability.
In the Tangshan earthquake, there was a little-known "Qinglong miracle"-Qinglong County, only 65 kilometers away from the center of Tangshan. No one was killed or injured in the earthquake.
1In July, 976, a delegation from the State Seismological Bureau went to Beijing Earthquake Team to listen to the report. A group of comrades represented by Wang Chengmin from the State Seismological Bureau insisted that a major earthquake was imminent, but their opinions were ignored. In this case, Wang Chengmin made an "eccentric" behavior-in the discussion of the national earthquake prevention experience exchange meeting that night, he poked the earthquake that "Tangshan and Luanxian may have an earthquake of magnitude 5 or above from July 22nd to August 5th".
After listening to the report, Wang, who is in charge of earthquake work in Qinglong County Science and Technology Commission, rushed back to the county from Tangshan. On July 24, Ran Guangqi, the "top leader" of Qinglong County, took the risk to take over their work and issued a disaster warning to the county. On July 25th, Qinglong County made a report on the earthquake situation to more than 800 county-level cadres, requesting to inform everyone of the earthquake situation before 26th. That night, nearly 100 cadres rushed to their respective communes. Almost all people in Qinglong county were driven to live outdoors.
This violation of the government's routine ensured that there were no casualties in Qinglong County in the tragic earthquake.