What's the difference between Tong Ren Tang and Pien Tze Huang?
However, if we choose a reference object-for example, the child next door, he gets more than 95 points in every exam. Then, it is easy to have the answers to good questions.
So, we study the fundamentals of the company. We mentioned in yesterday's article that we should first understand the level differences of Tao and know who is suitable for long-term medical consumption and other industries. You should also know how to compare several companies in the same industry.
I often see many people discussing in the stock bar forum. I bought a company with a profit of 10 billion, but the share price did not move, while another company with a profit of 10 billion kept rising. This is wrong and unreasonable.
Today we will let you understand this kind of thing and let you judge for yourself whether it is reasonable or not. We will find Pien Tze Huang and Tong Ren Tang.
We can look at their performance first and find that the profit of 20 18 is exactly the same. This year, Pien Tze Huang's profit165438+400 million, Tong Ren Tang's profit165438+300 million.
Simply comparing the figures, the difference between the two is only100000, but what is the difference between the market value and the valuation?
If we only do this static analysis and look at 20 18, we will often feel that there is something wrong with the market.
If you look at 18 in this way, naturally you can't get the answer.
So, what are your expectations for the future stock price? The most routine way is to refer to the average growth rate of its performance in the first three years, and then think dynamically on this basis.
There are two difficulties:
1. Look at the future performance of a listed company dynamically.
2. Future expected reference value
Don't worry, let's learn a little story first.
A young man named Zhang Sange and his girlfriend Li Simei fell in love in college and then worked together. I joined the same company, but because of different majors, one was assigned to a sales position and the other was assigned to a technical engineer position.
The starting salary of both of them is 4000 yuan, but the growth curve of wages is different because of different positions.
The position of engineer is growing steadily. The 10 contract signed by the company increases by 40% every year. There is no commission, it is a dead salary.
The basic salary of the sales position remains unchanged, and the commission is paid according to the performance.
They got married in the first year after they got employed. After getting married, Zhang Sange was laughed at by his good friends, and his salary was not as good as your daughter-in-law. You are only 4000, your wife 12000. When can you arrive on time? Brother Zhang is very depressed. It's hard to eat soft food.
One year for two years, in the fifth year, things are different, and no one gossips anymore.
Why? Because of the work of the sales post, each side of Lisi is basically 1000, with the highest 1000 and the lowest 8000.
Brother Zhang gets a salary increase of 40% every year according to the company contract, so the salary structure is like this.
In the tenth year, Zhang Sange's salary for one month is basically equivalent to that of Sister Li Si for one year. Who is raising who now?
Occupation belongs to the structure of "annual growth of 40%" internationally, which we call compound interest.
A famous story about compound interest is 1 64. The first cell contains 1 corn, the second cell contains 2 corn, and the third cell contains 4 corn, which means that the back is always twice as big as the front.
So how many pills are there in sixty-four squares? 1844674073709551616, which is a 20-digit number. There is not so much corn in the world.
Therefore, steady and sustained growth is equal to the great power of compound interest, which is the reason why valuations are different.
The better the performance growth in the past three years, the higher the valuation given by the current market. For example, Pien Tze Huang Huang Can gives a valuation of 80 times, while Aier Ophthalmology can give a valuation of 100 times, which is based on the company's "historical" performance.
So if you just look at the performance, the two companies can describe it like this.
Obviously, the financial reports of Pien Tze Huang and Tong Ren Tang are two extremes, one is the sustained and steady growth of performance, and the other is the sustained and steady decline.
The problem now is that Pien Tze Huang is obviously good, and Tong Ren Tang obviously cannot use compound interest as a weapon to grow. This is a comparison between the two companies.
Did you find out? We haven't compared this year's performance with the financial statements released by leverage in the third quarter of this year. We also want to see this.
Did you find out? Just look at the performance.
Tong Ren Tang, a poor student, scored 50 points in previous exams and failed for two years. This time, he actually scored 60 points in the third quarter. Excellent Pien Tze Huang got a perfect score of 100 in the first three years, and this time it is equal to 99, which basically does not affect his excellent level and is still the highest score in the class.
Tongrentang's score of 60 points is naturally an absolute score of 95 points, but the investment comparison is the future expectation.
There is only one reason to be optimistic about Tongrentang-it is best for Tongrentang to change the history of declining performance in the future and maintain "expectations" along the growth route in the third quarter.
Will the future market prove Tongrentang's Jedi counterattack or a flash in the pan in the third quarter? I don't think it's necessary to predict too much. Of course it has a chance.
At the transaction level, what we need to do is to look for buying opportunities near the current five-year lowest price of 23.7, and then prove it without breaking through the previous low and the technical premise disclosed in next year's annual report.