Typhoon Fireworks has been upgraded to a strong typhoon and is approaching Shanghai. What should we pay attention to in the coastal areas of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai?

1. The center of the typhoon fireworks is currently on the ocean east of Taiwan, about 800 kilometers away from Zhoushan. The current maximum instantaneous wind force is 48m/s, and it is slowly moving northwestward.

Due to the weak guidance airflow and the influence of the 90W low-pressure system located southeast of Japan (now developed into Typhoon Nibert), whether the fireworks will make landfall, and even if they make landfall, the location of the landing point is still confusing. However, the subtropical high pressure still controls the eastern Japan

region, and the fireworks will most likely continue to slowly approach the coast of Zhejiang. At present, based on the analysis of cloud images and convection conditions, the eye area of ​​typhoon fireworks is expanding, and it is possible to replace the eye wall, because the core CDO (central dense cloud area) of the current fireworks has invaded dry air, and the north side The outflow has encountered difficulties, so the current development is slow, but we still need to continue to observe the subsequent development. After all, we have entered the Kuroshio area.

2. According to weather radar detection, the eye area of ​​typhoon fireworks is still very large, and its core energy is currently also on the south side of the eye area, and other positions are not integrated

Okay, it can be seen that the dry air involved has a great impact on it, but the circulation of the fireworks is still very large, much larger than that of Typhoon Chapaka that affected Guangdong Hainan

So its strength is still Not to be underestimated. Typhoon fireworks are still moving very slowly, and it is difficult to determine its actual target. The Fujiwara effect and the lack of obvious guidance airflow have caused it to still linger in the ocean east of Taiwan. Currently, there are explosions on the west side of the eye area. There is a little bit of convection, but the outflow on the north side still has not improved, and the convection on the south side has become deeper

a little thicker.

If the fireworks continue to linger and move less, they will deplete the sea temperature of the ocean where they are located, and the cold water will be turned over, which will be detrimental to their development. However,

The convective clouds are coming soon. Convection is more likely to break out at night, which will be a critical period for the development of typhoon fireworks and will also determine the intensity with which it will affect the East China coast. The fireworks are still moving at a slow speed in the sea area where they are located, and the heat in this sea area has been exhausted by them. Therefore, the development of the typhoon fireworks has been hindered and the intensity has weakened. Currently, according to its convection situation, the convection in the south is It has also weakened accordingly, and the decline in the north is still obvious

But the convection in the spiral rain belt south of the fireworks is still relatively strong. If it can be involved in the core area of ​​the typhoon, its convection will be greatly increased

Strong. In addition, according to the radar chart, sporadic convection drops (inside the orange circle) brought by the pre-Taiwan squall line came ashore and entered Zhejiang, bringing short-term strong winds and heavy precipitation to some areas in Zhejiang. Please pay attention. Be on guard.

3. The typhoon fireworks were still trapped by the cold puddle caused by their slow movement. At present, the main convection of the typhoon fireworks was

thrown to the east, and there is a gap in the west. The intensity level has been declining, but its pace should be accelerating today. Last night's typhoon

The path of the fireworks turned due north, so northern Zhejiang is more likely to be its landing place. Currently, according to the radar map You can see a large number of squall lines coming ashore in front of Taiwan. Strong winds and rainfall will occur in Ningbo, Taizhou, Wenzhou and other places in Zhejiang.

At present, the speed of typhoon fireworks is gradually accelerating, but its convection situation is sluggish, and the intensity should not change much, but the precipitation brought by its huge clouds

cannot be underestimated. As the subtropical high continues to retreat eastward, its main body has now shrunk to the Pacific Ocean south of Alaska.

Therefore, if Typhoon Fireworks makes landfall, it will lack the guidance of the edge of the subtropical high, and will have a high probability of staying in East China. It may also

be pulled by the low-pressure system to the east.

4. It moves back and forth in East China, causing a steady stream of precipitation, and the typhoon fireworks may also cooperate with the cold vortex located in North my country, and coupled with the inverted trough precipitation, give The precipitation process brought by Jiangsu, Shandong and other places in my country.

Eastern China will be severely tested by heavy rains. According to the current convection conditions of the typhoon fireworks, strong convection appeared on the south side after entering, but the entire core cloud area has already appeared

Tearing. It can be known that the lack of energy due to slow movement in place has been Let it tire itself out. As can be seen from the cloud map, the spiral rainband in the north is expected to enter Zhejiang tomorrow, and the coast of Zhejiang will begin to be hit by strong winds and heavy rain tomorrow.

The current center of Typhoon Fireworks is on the East China Sea, 465 kilometers southeast of Xiangshan, and its convection conditions have been significantly enhanced. Although its underlying scan shows that it is currently southwest of its eye area The direction is still fragile, but after the movement speed increases, the fireworks have begun to reintegrate, the eye area has begun to shrink, and the second enhancement of the fireworks has begun. It will try its best to strengthen today and will be able to return soon

When it reaches the level of a strong typhoon, the East China coast cannot be taken lightly. At present, the cantilevered rainbands of the typhoon fireworks have come ashore, and radar shows that there are already a large number of echoes around Hangzhou Bay

and in Jinhua and other places. Strong winds and rainfall will continue, and the main body of the typhoon fireworks will begin to affect

5. According to forecasts from multiple agencies, typhoon fireworks will circle around East China, bringing heavy rainfall to East China (Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu) for several days

Water must be Do a good job in preventing floods and waterlogging, stock up on food, and recharge your power bank to face the fireworks. Storm surges, heavy rains and astronomical tides will bring great challenges to the coast of Zhejiang.

When a typhoon moves towards the land, due to the strong winds and low pressure of the typhoon, the seawater will accumulate forcefully towards the coast, the tide level will rise sharply, and the water waves will quickly press towards the coast.

, this is the typhoon storm surge. Storm surges caused by strong typhoons can raise coastal water levels by 5 to 6 meters, causing tides to overflow and seawalls to burst, flooding towns and farmland. In addition, storm surges can also cause coastal erosion, and seawater intrusion can salinize the land.

The Dvořák analysis method analyzes the intensity of typhoon fireworks. Today, the intensity of typhoon fireworks has begun to take off again, but why has the Central Meteorological Observatory not upgraded the intensity?

The wind level is incredible. The current typhoon fireworks The intensity is definitely at the level of a strong typhoon, and convection has also begun to break out in the northern region. At present, the northern arm of the main typhoon has begun to come ashore. The wind and rain conditions in Zhoushan and Xiangshan areas will be very severe. I hope everyone will not forget this behemoth when watching the Olympic Games.

The circulation of typhoon fireworks is really huge, and the water vapor contained is amazing. It connects with the southwest monsoon and the northern front

After the rainband, the intensity of precipitation will be unstoppable, and the tragedy in Henan cannot be allowed to happen again!

6. The structure of the typhoon fireworks has been reduced to shape. According to the current convection conditions, it can be seen that the main convection is concentrated in the eastern part of the cloud.

By this afternoon and evening, the center will be close to Shanghai. In the future, wind and rain along the coast will intensify. Because Typhoon Nibert is not strong enough

, the push effect of typhoon fireworks is not obvious, causing the path of the fireworks to move northward. The current intensity of typhoon fireworks may be

typhoon The lower limit (30 to 35m/s), and the landing point may be along the coast from Zhoushan to Qidong, and may directly penetrate into Shanghai. The danger semicircle is north of the landing site, so for the impact on Shanghai, refer to the typhoon Maisha.