The big drop is coming! Involving pigs, eggs, live sheep and corn, prepare early.
The domestic agricultural products market is basically at a standstill during the Spring Festival, so the prices of eggs, live sheep and corn are basically stable, only the price of pigs. Because slaughter enterprises have the demand of selling meat at a high price, it has ushered in a surge during the Spring Festival, but it is in a state of "price without market" for farmers.
With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the peak demand for agricultural products will also come to an end, and the price drop risk of pigs, eggs, live sheep and corn will increase, and the big drop is coming, so relevant personnel should make preparations early.
the risk of falling pig prices escalates
On January 16th, the price of live pigs fell to the bottom and ushered in a rebound, rising to 16.55 yuan/kg on January 23rd.
On January 26th, the price of live pigs fell more than it rose, with the rising areas in Shanghai, Anhui, Hebei, Hainan, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing and Sichuan, the stable areas in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guizhou and Guangxi, and the falling areas in Shandong, Fujian, Central China, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Gansu and Yunnan.
after the adjustment, the pig price in East China came to 7.6-8.5 yuan, Central China to 7.5-8.1 yuan, South China to 7.9-8.5 yuan, North China to 7.3-8.5 yuan, Northeast China to 6.9-7.6 yuan and Southwest China to 6.8-7.9 yuan.
Although parts of Northeast China, Northwest China, Southwest China and East China are still rising, the risk of falling pig prices will escalate after the holiday, and there is a great possibility that pig prices will plummet. The logic of falling pig prices mainly includes the following points:
1. After the Spring Festival, pork consumption will enter the stage where frozen meat and preserved meat are the main consumption, supplemented by fresh meat consumption, and pork consumption is sluggish, and the support of pig prices is insufficient.
2. The high pig price during the Spring Festival brings the pig price closer to the cost line again. After the loss of breeding is weakened, the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is expected to be improved.
3. There is a Spring Festival holiday in the middle, so the time for group pig farms to complete the monthly slaughter task in January is limited, and pigs will be slaughtered collectively.
However, it is unlikely that the average price of live pigs will fall to around 7 yuan again. On the one hand, after the epidemic situation stabilizes, catering and tourism will gradually recover, boosting pork consumption demand.
On the other hand, affected by the epidemic situation, the amount of new year's goods prepared by residents before the Spring Festival this year is relatively low compared with previous years, and there is little overdraft for pork consumption after the year.
On the other hand, the feed price is at a high level, and the bottom of the pig price has strong support.
the risk of falling egg prices escalates
On January 25th, the benchmark price of eggs for business companies was 9.66 yuan/kg, which was significantly higher than that on January 1st.
judging from the current market situation, most people are still in the Spring Festival holiday period, and the wholesale market is still not open much. Traders also hope to take advantage of the holiday to rest for a few more days. According to the law of previous years, traders will open their markets one after another after the sixth day. For the price after the opening, the industry expects the risk of falling egg prices to escalate.
at present, the number of newly opened laying hens corresponds to the number of laying hens in August, 222. According to statistics, although the number of laying hens in August last year was less than that of chickens eliminated in December, the productivity of laying hens decreased, but the decline was not large and the gap in egg supply was limited.
During the four or five days before and after the Spring Festival, the wholesale market stopped buying and selling, and the eggs were overstocked in the hands of farmers. After the opening of the market, there will be a wave of centralized listing, and the price of eggs will be under pressure.
After the Spring Festival, it is the low season of traditional egg consumption, and stocking before the Spring Festival also overdraws the egg consumption demand after the year to some extent.
Even after the epidemic situation stabilized in various places, catering consumption resumed, and it was difficult to raise the consumption demand in the egg market to a normal level.
But like the price of pigs, it is unlikely that the price of eggs will drop sharply.
1. After the holiday, the authorities will resume work, the school will open, and the canteen will be replenished.
2. After the holiday, all deep processing enterprises will start work with the improvement of terminal consumption, increasing the demand for eggs.
3. It takes about 5 days for eggs to reach the terminal market from the farm, and the terminal stock is partially consumed before the holiday, which affects the supply of eggs after the holiday.
Some institutional analysts believe that if there is a high enthusiasm for replenishment in the market, there is even room for the price of eggs to rise.
escalation of the risk of falling of live sheep
Farmers' expectation that good consumption during the Spring Festival will drive the price of sheep has not been realized, and the price of sheep is still low during the Spring Festival. Shandong Yanwo: 12-13 kg of small-tailed Han sheep skewers, 11.7-11.5 yuan/kg, 125-13 kg of fine-wool sheep skewers, 12-11.5 yuan/kg, and 125 Xinmin sheep.
Tangxian County, Hebei Province: Small-tailed Han sheep skewers are 125-135 kg, 11.6-11.3 yuan/kg, fine-wool sheep skewers are 125-14 kg, 12.3-11.8 yuan/kg, and Xinmin sheep skewers are 125-14 kg, 12.5-11.3 yuan/kg.
There are two main reasons for the low price of sheep. One is that in recent years, residents' income is low because of the epidemic and the price of mutton is high, so their enthusiasm for mutton consumption is weak.
The other reason is that the profit of raising sheep is considerable in the past few years, and the market has grown rapidly. In two years, the number of sheep farmers in some villages has increased from three or four to thirty or forty. However, the sheep breeding cycle is long, the production capacity is slow, and the price of sheep can't afford to fall.
The risk of falling prices of live sheep after the holiday will be further upgraded. The favorable consumption during the Spring Festival has failed to change the current situation of oversupply of mutton. After the Spring Festival, it is difficult to upgrade the relationship between supply and demand of mutton.
The price of sheep continues to be low, and the number of farmers who have cleared ewes will increase, which will further increase the supply of mutton in the market.
The risk of corn decline is escalating
Before the holiday, the price of corn went down for a wavelength. First, because the quantity of corn was loose, the number of surplus vehicles in Shandong deep processing enterprises remained at a high level in the morning.
the second reason is that feed and deep processing enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood and a general enthusiasm for stocking.
Even so, the price of corn rose slightly year-on-year, but the risk of falling corn prices after the holiday escalated.
1. Farmers at the grass-roots level are reluctant to sell corn, and the pace of selling corn at the grass-roots level is slow. The corn stocks in the mainstream corn producing areas are at a relatively high level. The progress of selling corn at the grass-roots level in Northeast China is only about 4%, and that in North China is only 5%. The supply of corn in the market is relatively loose.
2. After the holiday, spring ploughing will be opened one after another at the grass-roots level, and farmers will sell corn to prepare funds for spring ploughing before this.
3. Although feed enterprises and deep processing enterprises are not enthusiastic about stocking before the festival, they still have some stocks, and deep processing enterprises are still cautious in a short time.
4. As the weather gets warmer, it is more difficult to store grass-roots tidal grain, and the market selling pressure is increasing.