Will stocks rise during the National Day? What is the basis for the rise and fall of stocks?
In this case, there is a high probability that A shares will not plummet after the holiday. After all, after a certain increase before the holiday, the stock will fall back after the holiday, and the stock is relatively safe during this time. After the closing of the National Day, the stock market will return to a state of decline, mainly due to the festive atmosphere, which has a certain impact on market sentiment. Although A-shares did not fall sharply after the National Day, market risks still exist, especially the chances of capital profit are few. Investors should control their positions and wait for the opportunity of stock market correction after the National Day.
The 20 19 financial report released by A-share listed companies shows that from the data point of view, most listed companies performed well one week after the holiday. However, some unknown listed companies have announced their achievements these days. For example, some unknown listed companies have published 20 19 operating data, and their performance is still very poor, even some losses; For example, during the Spring Festival this year, the share prices of these listed companies basically fell all the way; Therefore, there may be a sharp drop after the National Day holiday.
However, some outstanding listed companies have announced the situation in the third or fourth quarter of this year, and the disclosure of these listed companies will be more obvious in the third or fourth quarter. For example, Kweichow Moutai has published the first three quarters of 20 18 and the semi-annual report of 20 19 during the National Day holiday. During this period, the share price of Kweichow Moutai rose by 40%, and its operating income in the first half of this year was1509.35 billion yuan, up by 36.0 1% year-on-year. The net profit returned to the mother was 65.438+05.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.09%. However, these performance announcements do not comprehensively analyze what kind of state will appear in various industries, and there will be a fluctuation range; Therefore, it may not be necessary if the share prices of unknown A-share listed companies such as Kweichow Moutai plummet after the National Day holiday; However, for those listed companies that have disclosed good financial performance in 20 19 years, as well as those with good performance in some semi-annual reports in 20 19 years, there is a high probability that they will have good performance.
Earlier, we analyzed that the domestic securities market may rise sharply during the National Day, but the domestic securities market as a whole is still in a stable state; After all, the overall P/E ratio of the domestic A-share market is declining, and there is even a slight downward trend. Therefore, there is a high probability that the P/E ratio of A shares will not drop significantly during the National Day.
And because July this year to 10 is the traditional consumption peak season of "Jin Jiu" in the traditional sense. At this time of year, the domestic economy is very representative, so the stock market will rise. In addition, the domestic price increase this year is very obvious; Recently, A-shares have cut interest rates one after another, and some institutions even predicted a 50 basis point rate cut. This is also an important reason why the A-share market performed well this year. Therefore, there is a high probability that A shares will not plummet during the National Day. After all, the domestic macro-economy is stable at present, and the stock market as a whole is a typical bull market trend.