The overall situation is settled! The wheat harvest is nearly 80%, and this year’s wheat is “1, 3, fast”
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As the wheat harvest progress continues to advance, this year’s wheat market trend has become increasingly clear. Specifically, this year’s wheat has shown the characteristics of “1 fast and 3 growth”:
1. Wheat harvest progress Fast
According to the wheat harvest progress released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on June 12, the harvested wheat area across the country is 239 million acres, and the harvest progress is 78.5%, nearly 80%. Compared with the same period last year, it is about 239 million acres. 1.2 percentage points.
Among them, the wheat harvest in Henan has basically ended, Jiangsu has entered the finishing stage, nearly 85% in Shaanxi, more than half in Shandong, 35% in Shanxi, and nearly 20% in Hebei.
The progress of summer harvest is mainly related to three factors:
One is the maturity level of wheat.
Although the wheat sowing was slow in some major producing areas last year, after vigorous efforts in the later period, the wheat growth caught up and there was no delay in wheat maturity.
The second is the fear of extreme weather.
You must know that last year, heavy rainfall was encountered during the wheat harvest, which caused the quality of wheat to vary and affected the entire wheat market.
The influence of La Niña still exists this year, so farmers are trying their best to harvest wheat out of fear of extreme weather, thereby speeding up the harvest.
The third is the impact of the epidemic.
In previous years, more farmers went to cities to work and began to return home to harvest wheat during the wheat harvest. However, this year due to the impact of the epidemic and prevention and control measures in many places, more farmers returned home early and the labor force was sufficient. The wheat harvest speeds up.
2. Double increase in wheat quality
Judging from the wheat harvested this year, the wheat yield per unit area this year is significantly better than last year.
Although winter sowing encountered some resistance last year, the positive effects of later policies stabilized production and laid a good foundation for this year's wheat harvest.
Coupled with the good moisture in the northern winter wheat area last year, the wheat's ability to withstand cold and frost has increased, which is also beneficial to its growth.
Therefore, a bumper wheat harvest this year is a foregone conclusion.
On the other hand, the overall quality of wheat this year is also higher than last year. For example, the quality of wheat in Anhui has reached the best level in the past 10 years, while most of the wheat in Jiangsu has also reached the second-class level.
As a result, both wheat output and quality increased this year.
3. Price increase
In addition to yield and quality, what everyone is most concerned about is the price of wheat this year.
It can be seen from the current opening price of new wheat that this year's wheat is properly "high".
The purchase price of grain depots is generally around 1.5-1.55 yuan/jin, while the purchase price of flour companies is around 1.55-1.6 yuan/jin, and it has continued to rise in recent days.
On the one hand, the rise in wheat prices is due to the impact of the general market and the rise in various costs, which has also pushed up grain prices; on the other hand, because old wheat has exceeded historical highs several times in the first half of this year, This has fully ignited market sentiment, making farmers generally reluctant to sell. Therefore, although the wheat harvest is progressing quickly, there is not much grain actually circulating.
In the later stage, wheat prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.
On the one hand, there are many grain collectors this year, and the summer grain purchase volume is expected to reach 130 billion kilograms. Therefore, there is a policy grain support, and there is limited room for wheat to fall.
On the other hand, international wheat prices continue to rise. On June 13, global wheat futures prices rose again by more than 2%, reaching a high of US$10.92/bushel.
4. Cost growth
But on the other hand, we have also noticed that the cost of wheat has also increased significantly this year.
First, the prices of fertilizers and other products have soared since last year, and have been hovering at high levels this year.
Take urea as an example. Last year, the price of urea once fell back to 2,300-2,400 yuan/ton, but the current mainstream price of urea is still hovering at 3,000 yuan/ton.
Fertilizer prices continue to rise, which has undoubtedly increased the cost of wheat cultivation.
Second, the cost of machine collection has also increased.
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global crude oil prices have surged sharply, and have since been hovering around $100 per barrel. Recently, with the arrival of summer, demand has increased and oil prices have begun to rise again.
The rise in global oil prices has caused domestic refined oil prices to continue to rise. This year, it has experienced "nine increases and one decrease."
In the upcoming new round of price adjustment window, domestic refined oil prices are expected to continue to rise to a new high, and diesel prices will also continue to rise.
In terms of increase, as of the end of May, the national diesel price had increased by 36% compared with last year, which also means that the cost of wheat harvesting machines has increased.
At the same time, labor costs are also rising, which has also pushed up the cost of wheat harvesting.
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