The weather forecast is getting more and more accurate. How do humans monitor weather changes?

Climate model evolved from weather forecast model, which is based on physical laws. Weather is a typical chaotic system, between order and disorder. Short-term is random, and long-term fluctuates within a certain range. Of course, in theory, a reliable climate model can be established to predict the next decades or even centuries, but the fluctuation of weather often causes huge calculation errors. The conditions affecting climate change are extremely changeable.

The abnormal subtropical high was discovered before the La Nina event this year. A 0.5℃ increase in the mean SST in the equatorial Pacific in the central and eastern regions will have an impact on climate change. The key to an accurate climate model is to incorporate rapid weather changes into climate calculation as noise and reflect the impact of these noises on climate. The complex interaction in the climate system is being described more thoroughly, and the climate model is becoming more complex, especially with the help of satellite measurement and weather observation.

These models clearly show that the greenhouse effect is accelerating: since the middle of19th century, the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere has increased by 40%. According to the climate change model, Klaus-Hasselman developed a method to determine the human impact on the climate system. He found that these models, as well as observations and theoretical results, contained enough information about noise and signal characteristics. For example, changes in solar radiation, volcanic particles or greenhouse gas levels will leave unique signals and fingerprints that can be separated. Class can predict the weather according to some changes of natural phenomena, such as judging the disastrous weather such as rainstorm by the changes of clouds in the sky, and can also monitor forest fires.

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