Why did the pig price plummet from 12 in 2022?
On February 2nd, 65438+KLOC-0/day, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document citing experts' opinions, pointing out that the price of live pigs has fallen too fast recently, mainly due to the weakening of pork consumption and the increase in the supply of live pigs at the end of the year. At present, there is no overcapacity in domestic pigs, and the weak market consumption is temporary. Farmers are advised not to panic.
According to industry experts' analysis, weak supply and demand is the root cause of this round of pig price diving. With the recovery of consumer demand, it is expected that pork prices will rebound moderately during New Year's Day and Spring Festival, and return to a reasonable position after the second quarter of next year. Farmers are advised not to blindly bet on the market after the Spring Festival.
Pig price diving
"Yesterday was a big drop of 80 cents. Today, the lowest price per catty of white pigs is 8 yuan, and the company's purchase price is 7.5 yuan -7.8 yuan per catty. " 65438+February 2 1 day, a farmer in Jimo, Shandong Province shared the market of the day in a pig forum. Another farmer called it "unbearable" and planned to sell his pig in the last two days. "I really can't stand the pain of pig prices."
After a continuous increase of 1 1 week in the third quarter, the price of live pigs began to decline from 1 1. By mid-June (5438+February), farmers' expectations of the southern curing season and the northern pig killing market did not bring substantial impetus to pork prices. Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of China Pig Warning Network, believes that the price of live pigs began to fall from 1 1, but it was relatively stable before. The real sharp drop occurred in the last 20 days or so, and there were signs of a sharp drop.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average weekly price of 65438+February 1.6% pork wholesale market from June 5 to June 2022 was 3 1.6 1 yuan per kilogram, down 1.6% from the previous month. As of 65438 on February 20th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 28.35 yuan/kg, down 2.2% from the previous day.
According to the data of soupig. com, on February 20th 17.4 1 yuan/kg, the average price of lean-meat pigs in China has fallen to 8 yuan, and the north and south markets continue to decline in a large area. According to industry sources, the price of live pigs in some parts of Northeast China has dropped to 15 yuan-16 yuan.
At the same time, the pig futures market also showed a downward trend. As of the close of 65438+February 19, the contract of live pig futures in recent months was 156 15 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7.98%; The main pig futures contract 2303 closed at 15470 yuan/ton, down 3.58%, the lowest since April this year.
According to the sales data of listed companies, in June 2022, the average selling price of commercial pigs in Mu Yuan County was 23.33 yuan/kg, which was 10.44% lower than that in June 2022. The average selling price of live pigs in Wen's 1 1 month was 24. 1 1 yuan/kg, with a chain change of -9.67%. The average selling price of commercial pigs in the same period of New Hope was 22.3 yuan/kg, a month-on-month change of-13.67%. The average price of Tianbang Food 1 1 commercial pigs was 23.65 yuan/kg, down about1/0.32% from last month. On the whole, the average price of live pigs in large-scale breeding groups has fallen back to the level of September this year.
Psychological fermentation of panic selling
In view of the recent rapid decline in domestic pig prices, the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission recently organized a video conference. Experts pointed out that the recent rapid decline in the price of live pigs was mainly affected by the weakening of pork consumption and the increase in the supply of live pigs at the end of the year.
According to Sogou.com's analysis, since the beginning of 65438+February, the pig slaughter speed of major head breeding enterprises has accelerated, and ordinary free-range households have also followed suit. In addition, the pig price fell and the demand was less than expected, and the panic of farmers continued to ferment, and then they continued to slaughter, paying for the previous centralized slaughter.
In the first three quarters of this year, domestic pig prices experienced a process of falling first and then rising. At the beginning of June, the national average price of pig grain broke away from the excessive decline and early warning range, and the losses of most pig enterprises in the second quarter narrowed sharply. In September, they broke even or made a slight profit, and by the end of 10, they had turned losses in a single quarter or made profits in the first three quarters.
On September 27th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the second warning area for excessive pork prices. 65438+ 10 65438+April, the National Development and Reform Commission organized experts to study the supply and demand and price situation of the live pig market, and concluded that the important reason for the obvious increase in the price of live pigs was that some farmers played games for the market outlook, and irrational behaviors such as excessive reluctance to sell and secondary fattening occurred, which reduced the market supply.
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that although the slaughter of pigs has continued to increase since the second half of the year, especially since June, the supply structure has changed due to slaughter pressure and secondary fattening, which has led to the excessive increase in pig prices in the first two months to some extent. The price of live pigs has been adjusted back since June 1 1, mainly due to the increase in the supply of standard pigs and the increase in secondary fattening.
"65438+there was no expected rebound in early February, and the panic of farmers was amplified. In the last two weeks, the price of live pigs has dropped significantly. " Zhu Zengyong analyzed that the weak supply and demand is the root cause of this round of pig price diving. From the supply side, the peak period of pig supply is from 65438+February to the Spring Festival every year. In addition, small farmers bet on the market at the end of the year, and the second fattening and re-fattening pigs did not panic until 65438+February, leading to the stampede effect. From the perspective of consumer demand, the price of pork was at a high level before 5438+February in mid-June, which inhibited consumer demand to some extent, the demand for pigs in slaughterhouses declined, and the sales of butcher shops also declined. Due to various reasons, the current price of live pigs is oversold for a short time. "Farmers should avoid panic and slaughter emotions, calmly face the current excessive drop in pig prices, and rationally arrange the rhythm of slaughter to avoid further amplification of the stampede effect."
Weak consumption is "temporary"
Regarding the later trend of the hog market, Soupig.com believes that it is difficult to change the fundamentals of supply and demand in a short period of time, and it is difficult to change the situation that the supply of pig sources continues to be high under the cover of panic. "After all, everyone has kept pigs for two or three months. They all hope to be released at the end of the year. " Next, whether the pig price will stop falling or rebound depends largely on the demand side. As the pig price in some areas fell to the vicinity of the cost line, the price increase sentiment gradually picked up, and the decline in the pig market may narrow and stabilize.
Experts organized by the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the current domestic pig production capacity is generally in a reasonable range, and there is no overcapacity problem, and the weak market consumption is temporary, so farmers need not worry too much. It is suggested that farmers reasonably arrange the pace of production and operation, don't panic, and keep the pig production capacity basically stable; Pork processing enterprises appropriately increase commercial stocks, expand market demand, and jointly promote the smooth operation of the live pig market. The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to pay close attention to the market supply and demand and price dynamics, and take reserve adjustment measures such as purchasing and storage when necessary to promote the long-term healthy development of the live pig market.
Feng Yonghui believes that in the long run, with the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, consumption recovery is only a matter of time, but farmers need to go through a painful process. "At present, the pig-grain ratio has dropped to about 5.5: 1, which is lower than the break-even point. I don't think there is room for further decline. It is expected that the inflection point will appear in a week or two. The National Development and Reform Commission is also releasing signals to the outside world, advising farmers not to panic. "
Zhu Zengyong believes that pork consumption demand will recover and boost, and pork prices will not continue to decline. It is expected that there will be a seasonal moderate rebound during the next New Year's Day and Spring Festival. In the first half of next year, especially after the second quarter, it is expected that the national consumption will gradually pick up and the pork price will return to a relatively suitable position, but at the same time, farmers are reminded to avoid speculation in secondary fattening and not to blindly bet on the market after the Spring Festival.