Shanghai weather forecast accuracy 15 days
The forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory within three days is more accurate, and the forecast of the local meteorological observatory within two days is more accurate.
In general, the accuracy rate is 95% in 24 hours, about 90% in 48 hours, and about 60% in 96 hours.
Weather forecast is the application of science and technology to predict the atmospheric conditions at a specific place and time. Since19th century, people have been trying to predict the weather informally and formally. Weather forecast is carried out by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere, land and ocean, and using meteorology to predict how the atmosphere in a specific place will change.
Forecast method of weather forecast
1, empirical prediction method
Based on the situation forecast of the weather map, the future weather distribution is predicted according to the future position and intensity of the weather system. For example, when the low pressure moves and strengthens, it can be predicted that there will be rainy weather or heavy precipitation in the future.
The accuracy of this method depends largely on the experience of forecasters, and the forecast effect is unstable because the weather system and weather phenomena are not in one-to-one correspondence.
2. Statistical forecasting methods
Analyze the historical data of weather, seek the correlation between the change of atmospheric state and the previous meteorological factors, screen the forecast factors by using regression equation and probability theory, and establish the forecast equation. So as to obtain the required predicted value. The effect of this method mainly depends on the correct choice of factors.
3. Dynamic statistics
The future meteorological parameters calculated by numerical forecasting method are used as forecasting factors, and a set of forecasting formulas are obtained by regression equation to forecast the factors. With the improvement of numerical model, the accuracy of this method may be improved steadily.