2010 Winter Weather Forecast My home is located in the North China Plain. There is a greenhouse. Too much snow in winter will affect strawberry greenhouses; will there be too much snow this year?

[Reprint] Kuang Yaoqiu’s Will winter get colder after the scorching heat?

Quoted from "Southern Expansion of the Frigid Zone" Will winter get colder after the scorching heat? In an interview with Liaoning Daily in February this year, he analyzed the principles and recent performance of climate change, and put forward the prediction that "cold winter will be followed by intense heat." On February 4, Liaoning Daily published an exclusive interview at: /html/lnrb/20100204/ lnrb385212.html#, This prediction has been verified, and he was recently interviewed by Liaoning Daily again. Liaoning Daily once again published an exclusive interview: Will winter get colder after the scorching heat? See:/html/lnrb/20100722/lnrb503524.html Dialogue with Kuang Yaoqiu - Will winter get colder after the scorching heat? 2010-07-22 09:24:44 Source: Liaoning Daily Summer has just begun in the northern hemisphere, and heat waves are raging everywhere. The temperature in Beijing on July 5 has exceeded 40°C, breaking through the high temperature extreme in early July in Beijing since 1951. value, the ground temperature is as high as 68℃. Other parts of the world are also experiencing intense heat. In early June, the highest temperature in northwest India was close to 50°C, setting a record for the highest temperature in Indian meteorological history. Since late June, persistent high temperatures have occurred in the Gulf, with temperatures in Saudi Arabia soaring to 50°C and temperatures in Kuwait soaring to 52°C. The United States is also experiencing hot weather. According to US media reports, a heat wave swept New York City on July 4, with temperatures at both JFK Airport and nearby Newark Airport reaching 38.3°C. The highest temperature in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, hit a new high since 1881 on the 18th, reaching 35.3°C. The unusually hot weather reminds us of a very important environmental problem in recent years: the greenhouse effect. The continuous increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has caused the greenhouse effect to become more and more obvious. This year's intense heat has sounded the alarm for global change. While the northern hemisphere is experiencing unbearable heat, the southern hemisphere is getting even colder. So what kind of winter will the northern hemisphere usher in next? We asked researcher Kuang Yaoqiu of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to make predictions. High temperature records are frequently set in various parts of the northern hemisphere. Liaoning Daily: Northern Hemisphere - Entering summer, heat waves are frequently raging in various places, which exactly verifies the prediction that "severe winter will be followed by scorching heat" when you were interviewed by me in February this year. The temperature in Beijing on July 5th exceeded 40°C, breaking through the extreme high temperature in early July in Beijing since 1951, and the ground temperature was as high as 68°C. Such high temperature weather is not unique to Beijing. Can you tell us about the situation in other regions? Kuang Yaoqiu: Since the beginning of summer this year, there have been three high-temperature weather processes in my country. Each high-temperature process lasted for more than 7 days, and the high-temperature heat wave was obvious. According to statistics, from June 1 to July 4, 2010, the daily maximum temperature of 162 stations in Northeast China, North China, Xinjiang, the Yangtze River Basin, and South China reached extreme event standards, among which Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang 34 stations exceeded the historical extreme. The National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration has summarized the characteristics of high temperature weather in my country since the beginning of summer in 2010. It has the following characteristics: First, the high temperature intensity is high. Since the beginning of summer, most areas in eastern and northern my country have generally experienced high-temperature weather with daily maximum temperatures greater than or equal to 35°C. Among them, northern Heilongjiang, northeastern and western Inner Mongolia, eastern Xinjiang, and southwestern Hebei have also experienced temperatures above 38°C. Hot weather. Second, there are many high-temperature days. The national average number of high temperature days this year is 2.8, 1.3 days more than the same period in normal years. The number of high temperature days in southern North China, western Huanghuai and eastern Xinjiang, western Heilongjiang, northeastern Inner Mongolia, western Hubei, and most of Hainan is 4-12 days, and some areas in eastern Xinjiang have 12-20 days. Among them, the average number of high temperature days in Jilin Province was 2.1, and the average number of high temperature days in Heilongjiang Province was 4.7, both of which were the highest in the same period in history. The scorching heat abroad is even worse. Many countries in the northern hemisphere have been hit by high temperature heat waves since the beginning of summer: Since May this year, the temperature in most cities in India has remained above 42°C. Gujala in the west has The average temperature in Gujarat is as high as 48.5℃. In early June, the maximum temperature in northwestern India was close to 50°C, setting a record in the history of Indian meteorology. There are reports that the intense heat has caused nearly 300 deaths. Since late June, persistent high temperatures have occurred in the Gulf region, with temperatures soaring to 50°C in Saudi Arabia and 52°C in Kuwait. The United States is also experiencing high temperature weather. According to US media reports, a heat wave swept New York City on July 4, with temperatures at JFK Airport and nearby Newark Airport reaching 38.3°C. Liaoning Daily: It seems that the northern hemisphere is generally experiencing scorching heat. On the other hand, it is winter in the southern hemisphere. How is the situation in the southern hemisphere? Kuang Yaoqiu: Although most of the southern hemisphere is sea area and is regulated by the ocean, it basically has a maritime climate. It is generally relatively mild, and cold winters and hot summers are relatively rare. However, the temperature in the Southern Hemisphere has also been abnormal this year. However, due to the small land area and few residents in the Southern Hemisphere, it is difficult for us to see relevant reports.

Fortunately, this year’s World Cup is being held in South Africa. From the news reports of the World Cup, we can find some abnormal weather information in the southern hemisphere: Strong cold air began to sweep across South Africa from south to north on June 15. On June 18, the South African Meteorological Department Released information confirmed that the lowest temperature in Johannesburg reached -3.2°C on the 17th and 18th, setting a record for the lowest temperature since the meteorological department was established in 1994. Judging from historical records, winters in South Africa have not been cold in the past. The average minimum temperature in June is around 3°C to 4°C, and it can reach more than ten degrees Celsius during the day. There is sufficient sunshine, which can fully meet the needs of football matches. Who knew that since mid-June, the temperature in South Africa has continued to drop, which FIFA did not expect. The cold weather makes many fans choose to stay at home. You must know that the latitude of South Africa is not very high, and the southernmost latitude does not exceed 35° south latitude. Its latitude is only equivalent to my country's Xi'an and Zhengzhou, and Xi'an and Zhengzhou, which have a typical continental climate, are also difficult to see - The weather is 10℃, and Bloemfontein, South Africa, which is characterized by a maritime climate, has a temperature record of -10.3℃, indicating that the intensity of the cold wave is indeed abnormal. Liaoning Daily: Comparing the temperatures in June alone, it is true that the northern hemisphere in June was hotter than before and the southern hemisphere was colder than before, right? Kuang Yaoqiu: The average temperature of June 2010 around the world can be obtained based on the average land temperature data in June observed and collected by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in the United States and the average sea surface temperature data in June observed and collected by the Hadley Center in the United Kingdom. The average temperature of land in the Northern Hemisphere in June is mostly 1℃-4℃ higher than the average temperature in June from 1951 to 1980. The temperature in the northern coastal areas of the Caspian Sea is 5℃ higher. Only the northwest United States, Afghanistan, southeastern China are 0.2℃-1℃ lower, and Near normal temperatures in northwest Russia. The greenhouse effect accelerates the expansion of the cold zone southward in the northern hemisphere in winter and the northward movement of the tropics in summer. Liaoning Daily: Summer has just begun, why is it so hot in most parts of the northern hemisphere? Kuang Yaoqiu: In summer, the solar radiation received by the northern hemisphere gradually increases, and it is normal for some high-temperature weather to occur. However, there should be a reason for the temperature to hit a new high and the number of days with high-temperature weather to increase. I think the greenhouse effect is still to blame. The enhanced greenhouse effect is the main reason for the record high temperatures and the increase in hot weather this summer. I remember when I was interviewing you about the cold winter at the beginning of the year, I said that the overall consequence of the increase in greenhouse gas concentration is: warming (region) when there is sunlight, and cooling (region) when there is no sunlight. "Cold winter" is likely to mean that we will face "severe heat" in half a year. Apparently, this inference made at the time has now been verified. The beginning of summer means that the sun begins to shine directly on the northern hemisphere. Most areas in the northern hemisphere receive a rapid increase in solar radiation. The rocks and soil on the surface heat up rapidly under the action of solar radiation. The increasing greenhouse effect prevents the heat accumulated on the surface from dissipating, resulting in The surface temperature continues to rise and heats the air on the surface, causing the temperature in human living spaces to rise abnormally and making people feel hot. In late May, the rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña caused an increase in precipitation in East Asia, which to a certain extent also alleviated the warming in southeastern my country, otherwise the weather would have been even hotter. Liaoning Daily: As we mentioned earlier, the northern hemisphere is experiencing intense heat, while the southern hemisphere is cooler than normal. Is there any connection between them? Kuang Yaoqiu: It is the heat in our northern hemisphere that causes the cold in the southern hemisphere. When the sun shines on the northern hemisphere in summer, the greenhouse effect is obviously stronger in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. The rising temperature in the northern hemisphere will inevitably heat the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere, and the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere will inevitably expand due to the warming. This is the principle of gas expansion and contraction that middle school students know is at work. The earth's atmosphere moves freely around the entire earth's surface. The expansion of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere will inevitably lead to the compression of the atmosphere in the southern hemisphere. The result of the compression of the gas is an increase in density. The result of the increase in density is a greater gravitational pull from the center of the earth. Therefore, Downdrafts will occur. We know that the temperature of the tropospheric atmosphere decreases with altitude, about 6°C for every 1,000 meters of elevation. The sinking of the upper atmosphere is the drop of cold air at high altitudes, which will inevitably lead to a drop in local temperatures, making people feel colder. Liaoning Daily: You said that the greenhouse effect has caused the northern hemisphere’s frigid zones to expand southward, but will it now move the tropics northward? What is the approximate range? Kuang Yaoqiu: I did say that the greenhouse effect makes the northern hemisphere’s frigid zones expand southward in winter, and it also moves the tropics northward in summer. After the greenhouse effect is enhanced, in summer, direct sunlight causes heat accumulation in the northern hemisphere, and the greenhouse effect makes the northern hemisphere hotter and hotter. The range of the hot zone will inevitably move northward; in winter, the cold high pressure in the Arctic Circle will correspondingly increase, and the range of the cold zone will increase accordingly. It will inevitably expand southward, and the northern frigid zone in geography and climatology will also expand southward. We call it the southward expansion of the frigid zone. However, if you want to use a latitude line to delineate a new frigid zone or tropical zone, the conditions are not yet met, because the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has not stabilized, the greenhouse effect continues to increase, and the migration of climate zones has not yet Stop. In addition, climate zoning is not entirely determined by latitude. Altitude is also an important factor in determining climate zoning. Secondly, the distribution of mountains and water bodies and the intensity of geothermal heat will affect the climate of a region. The average number of high temperature days in Heilongjiang Province from June 1 to July 4 this year reached 4.7, indicating that the summer in Heilongjiang is getting closer to the summer in the tropics. Of course, the nighttime temperature is still different from that in the tropics.

Liaoning Daily: We have discovered such a phenomenon: in some places, winters are colder and summers are hotter, and the duration of winter and summer is longer than before, while the spring and autumn periods with suitable temperatures have been greatly shortened. Kuang Yaoqiu: That’s true, because there are only 365 days in a year, and the winter and summer seasons are longer, while the spring and autumn seasons are naturally shortened. For example, Beijing's winter climate characteristics this year began to appear at the end of October last year and ended in late April this year, nearly 6 months. In May, summer climate characteristics appeared. Some media joked that spring in Beijing this year was omitted. . In fact, last year's autumn was also omitted. In many places in North China, white snow was already falling before the autumn leaves turned yellow. There will be more extreme climate events. Liaoning Daily: I feel that there are many floods and droughts this year, and they occur alternately. That means extreme weather occurs frequently. Is this the same in other parts of the northern hemisphere? Kuang Yaoqiu: There are indeed many floods and droughts this year, especially the drought in the southwest before April, the snow disaster and snowmelt floods in northern Xinjiang, and the floods in Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi and Guangdong since May. It left a deep impression on people. When my country's southwest region suffered from severe drought before April, neighboring Southeast Asia was not spared either. Myanmar, Laos, eastern India and Bangladesh all suffered from severe drought; while Central Asia, like the northern region of Xinjiang in my country, experienced significant rain and snow. increase, and flood disasters are serious. Since May this year, when southern my country has suffered severe floods, some European countries have not been spared. Continuous heavy rainfall in southeastern Poland in late May caused the water level of the Vistula River to rise rapidly, causing the city of Sandomierz ( A large area of ​​farmland in the southeast across the river from Sandamierz and several small towns such as Sokolniki and Gorzyce were completely destroyed. More than 10 kilometers of highway were submerged, and the capital was seriously affected. Warsaw poses a huge threat. Liaoning Daily: Is the emergence of these extreme climates also related to the greenhouse effect? Kuang Yaoqiu: The droughts and floods you mentioned are related to the El Niño phenomenon (abnormal increase in sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific) and La Niña (abnormal decrease in sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific) in the Pacific. In previous years, our country was affected by the El Niño phenomenon, and the areas south of the Yangtze River were in a state of drought. The area affected by this year's El Niño phenomenon moved westward, so before May this year, there was a severe drought in the southwestern region of my country. In late May, after the El Niño phenomenon ends, it soon turns into the La Niña phenomenon. Under the control of the La Niña phenomenon, there will be large-scale precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin in my country, causing floods. Speaking of El Niño and La Niña, they are both related to sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. The greenhouse effect indirectly affects the sea surface temperature in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific: this year is hot in the northern hemisphere, and the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere expands due to heat, causing the atmosphere in the southern hemisphere to be compressed. The downdraft in the Antarctic increases the evaporation of seawater near the Antarctic, causing the salt in the surface seawater. As the temperature increases, the temperature decreases, the density increases, and the seawater sinks, forming an Antarctic bottom current. This Antarctic bottom current with high oxygen content slowly moves toward the equator. During the movement, the organic matter in the seabed sediments is oxidized and produces carbon dioxide. This carbon dioxide accumulates to a certain extent, just like the soda we drink. Carbon dioxide bubbles are produced, which bring cold seawater from deep oceans to the surface as they rise, lowering the temperature of surface seawater in equatorial seas, thus triggering the La Niña phenomenon. These extreme climate events are not directly caused by the greenhouse effect, but they are also a result of the greenhouse effect. Liaoning Daily: The coming of sweltering heat has to make us wonder: Will glaciers in low latitudes, such as those in the Himalayas, melt? Kuang Yaoqiu: The enhanced greenhouse effect does have a greater impact on glaciers in low latitudes. In summer, the snow line (the lower limit of perennial snow cover, that is, the balance line where annual snowfall and annual melt are equal) will move upward, but in winter, the snow line will move upward. Move down. Generally speaking, the scope of the alpine freeze-thaw zone is expanded. If the height of the mountain is lower than the height of the summer snow line, all the glaciers on the mountain will melt; if the height of the mountain is greater than the height of the summer snow line, all the glaciers on the mountain will not melt, but will only retreat. Glaciers in the Himalayas will retreat in the summer, but may advance in the winter without melting completely. Liaoning Daily: There are reports that the intense heat has reduced crop yields and reduced grain production. Kuang Yaoqiu: The impact of high temperatures and heat on plants is relatively obvious. Redbud, a local plant in Guangdong, is an evergreen broad-leaf plant. If it encounters high temperatures above 38°C for several consecutive days, its leaves will turn yellow, wither, and even die. The impact of high temperatures and heat on crops should be relatively large. Different crops may have different impacts. Relevant agricultural experts or plant protection experts will have a better say on which crops will be affected. The scorching summer will be extended to the end of September, and then the winter will be even colder. Liaoning Daily: Will we have to spend the next few months in the scorching heat, or will there be some relief? Kuang Yaoqiu: We may mainly spend the next few months in the scorching heat. Of course, there will be some hail, tornadoes or heavy rains caused by strong convective weather in some places, which will alleviate the high temperatures and heat, especially those caused by typhoons. The rainfall will significantly alleviate the hot and scorching weather in southeastern my country. However, the reduction in the number of typhoons this year will not be conducive to cooling in southeastern my country. There may be more high-temperature weather from July to September than in previous years.

In addition, the developing La Niña in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean will bring more precipitation to our country, which will help alleviate high temperatures and heat, and may even cause severe floods. The distribution of this precipitation depends on the strength of La Niña: if it is strong, it will affect a wider range; if it is weak, it will mainly affect the area south of the Yangtze River. Usually by late September, when the sun returns south of the equator, the amount of sunlight entering the northern hemisphere will gradually decrease, and then the intense heat will end. Liaoning Daily: Next winter will be severe, right? Kuang Yaoqiu: As the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to increase, the greenhouse effect will continue to strengthen. Winter will come next in the northern hemisphere, summer temperatures in the southern hemisphere may reach new highs, and severe heat will occur, while the northern hemisphere will face another cold winter. , maybe a colder winter.

Of course, the degree of coldness will be different in different areas, and some areas may be warmer due to factors such as vegetation distribution and geothermal activity