Discussion on the development prospect of pepper market in the next few years
I. Production capacity
According to the statistical data of China Forestry Yearbook, the output of Zanthoxylum bungeanum has remained above 300,000 tons since 2065,438+02, and exceeded 400,000 tons for the first time in 2065,438+07, with an annual output of 438,400 tons. In 2065,438+08, the output of Zanthoxylum bungeanum was about 458,500 tons, and in 2065,438+08. However, the national pepper production still reached 458,500 tons, including 6,543,800 tons in Sichuan, 74,000 tons in Chongqing and 62,600 tons in Shaanxi. The national pepper yield statistics in 2065,438+09 have not been published, but after large-scale harvest, the yield is estimated to be around 600,000 tons. However, there is a big gap between the official statistics and the data held by industry experts. According to industry estimates, the actual dry pepper production in 20 19 has exceeded 1 10,000 tons. According to the current development momentum, it is expected that the planting area of Zanthoxylum bungeanum will increase in the next 2-3 years. By 2020, the planting area of Zanthoxylum bungeanum will reach 2 million mu, and the annual output of Zanthoxylum bungeanum will reach 6.5438+500,000 tons.
Zanthoxylum bungeanum is cultivated in most parts of China, and a large area of red Zanthoxylum bungeanum is distributed in North China and Northwest China, including Hancheng in Weinan, Shaanxi and Fengxian in Baoji, Tianshui in Longnan, Gansu, Yuncheng in Shanxi, Funiu Mountain, Taihang Mountain in Henan, Yiyuan in Shandong and parts of western Sichuan. Green peppers are mainly distributed in southwest China, including Hanyuan and Shudu in Sichuan and Jiangjin in Chongqing. Among them, the counties with large pepper planting area are Hancheng, Heyang, Fuping, huayin city, Chengcheng, Tongguan and Fengxian in Shaanxi, Hanyuan, Xichang, Huili, Huidong, Yanyuan, Jinyang, Wenchuan, Jinchuan, Lixian, Maoxian, Panzhihua, Mianyang and Pingwu in Gansu, and Wenxian in Gansu.
Second, demand.
At present, the vast majority of Zanthoxylum bungeanum in China is still sold and consumed in the form of dried Zanthoxylum bungeanum peel, and directly sold in the form of raw materials, with meager profits. Rough machining and deep processing only account for 20% of the total output, and the economic benefit is not high. In addition, dried Zanthoxylum bungeanum is easy to be damp and moldy during storage and sales, which leads to the loss of fragrance and is difficult to preserve for a long time. At present, the main use of pepper is seasoning, and other uses, such as medicine, are relatively limited, so deep processing will squeeze oil. Seasoning is a relatively large domestic market. After all, foreign countries have different eating habits and limited demand. With the continuous development in recent years, there is a great demand for spicy food, but with the aging population and population decline in China, the demand for condiments has basically reached a high level. According to relevant statistics, the total demand of Zanthoxylum bungeanum in 2005 was between 200,000 and 300,000 tons, and in 2065,438+00, the demand has increased to more than 500,000 tons. In 20 17, the demand of Zanthoxylum bungeanum in China will reach about 700,000 tons, with an annual increase of about 4%.
Zanthoxylum bungeanum, Zanthoxylum bungeanum peripheral products and their potential markets;
1, China has a large population and a huge market. With the improvement of people's living standards, the consumption of pepper oil, pepper powder and seasoning for fast food noodles is increasing. In addition, the rise of hot pot restaurants and spicy Sichuan cuisine in recent years has stimulated the rapid growth of demand for pepper in the domestic market. In addition, people's diet tastes worse every year. As a condiment, the sales volume of pepper will increase slightly year by year.
2. From abroad, there is also a big export market. China's peppers are mainly exported to Japanese, Singaporean and Malaysian countries, but mainly to China people and some Chinese restaurants. Therefore, from the perspective of the international market, there is still potential, but suitable varieties are needed. "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported that in 20 18, Japanese pepper sales exceeded 1 100 million yen, more than doubling in four years. The main reason is that peppers produced in China are loved by young Japanese consumers because of their "spicy" taste, and peppers and related products have become a new growth point of Japanese Chinese food.
3, pepper processing, you can do pepper oil, pepper essential oil, pepper soap, pepper cosmetics and so on.
At present, relevant experts and professors from technical research institutions, scientific research institutions and universities all over the country have made scientific research on the new application scope of Zanthoxylum bungeanum, and extracted the important components of Zanthoxylum bungeanum through deep processing, so that it can be applied to new fields such as cosmetics, narcotic drugs, Chinese herbal medicines and health care products. Once a breakthrough is made, the use of pepper will be wider, the sales channels will be more, and the development space will be greater, which will completely solve the sales problem of pepper.
Third, analysis
Whether there will be a downturn in sales of peppers depends on the output. Judging from the above introduction, the output of pepper is relatively large at present. According to the annual output of 6,543,800 tons, the total amount of fresh food and processing exports can consume 700,000 tons, and there are nearly 300,000 tons of overcapacity. Although the demand is increasing every year, the increase in output is far greater than the increase in demand. In addition, the picking of Zanthoxylum bungeanum is completely manual at present, and its cost accounts for 1/5- 1/4 of the product price, and it is increasing year by year, which is also one of the main reasons for the firm price of Zanthoxylum bungeanum. Second, look at the market. Although Zanthoxylum bungeanum is a completely market-oriented agricultural product, it is mainly regulated by the market, but as a seasoning product, it has its particularity, which is mainly manifested in: the output will adjust the price, but the impact on sales volume is limited. What do you mean? That is to say, because the per capita consumption of pepper is limited and the yield is low, the price will rise, while the yield is high and the price will fall, but the small fluctuation of yield and price can not cause the big fluctuation of sales, and not many people will eat more pepper products because the price of pepper is cheap. Third, look at inventory. The preservation of dried pepper is relatively simple, and farmers can keep it for more than 3 years. The inventory stored in farmers' hands every year is almost close to the national annual output. In normal years, these stocks are used to adjust the deficit caused by natural disasters. Fourth, look at the unknown factors. There are two unknown factors that affect pepper sales. One is that peppers are not frost-resistant. In recent years, there are many frosty weather in northern pepper planting areas, which seriously reduces the yield after frost, affecting the yield. For example, in 20 13 and 20 18, there was a severe frost in Gansu, and the peppers were almost gone. Another unknown factor is the demand for processing raw materials. In recent years, the development of pepper extension products is hot, but it has been tepid. Due to the development of nutritional value and health care function, there will be a breakthrough in pepper processing in the future. Once the processing dosage increases, there will be a shortage of pepper demand.
To sum up, the market prospect of pepper is still considerable in the next few years.