How many major suggestions have been made in the new eight-character policy?
The first macro-control (1979 ~ 198 1)
-the two central meetings no longer "rob people"
The first macro-control was aimed at inflation caused by overheating in 1978. At the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee held in June 5438+February of that year, it was proposed that the focus of the whole party's work should be shifted to socialist modernization. The meeting also pointed out that some major imbalances in the national economy have not been completely changed, and capital construction must be carried out in an active and orderly manner, and it is not possible to rush into it.
1in March, 979, Li Xiannian and Chen Yun wrote to the the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Financial and Economic Work Committee, clearly stating that the national economic imbalance is quite serious now, and it will take two or three years to adjust. In the same month, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting decided to adjust the national economy in three years. In April, the central working conference devoted to economic issues was held, and it was formally proposed to adjust the whole national economy in three years and implement the new eight-character policy of "adjustment, reform, rectification and improvement".
However, in the two years of 1979 and 1980, the understanding of the adjustment from the central government to the local government was not uniform and the implementation was weak. The overall scale of infrastructure construction has not come down. After the expansion of financial power of local governments and enterprises, they blindly went to projects, resulting in a large fiscal deficit and excessive currency issuance. Therefore, in February of 1980 and 1980, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held working meetings again, and decided to make further major adjustments to the national economy in 198 1 year after the adjustments in 65438 and 1980. So far, the first national economic adjustment since the reform and opening up has been effectively carried out.
The second macro-control (1985 ~ 1986)
-give up halfway, leaving hidden dangers.
The second macro-control is aimed at the inflation caused by 1984 overheating. In June165438+1October of that year, the State Council issued a notice, requiring all localities and departments to strictly control financial expenditure and credit supply. The following year, 1985' s "Government Work Report" proposed to strengthen and improve the effective macroeconomic regulation and management, and resolutely prevent the phenomenon of blindly pursuing and keeping pace with the growth rate.
However, this year's overheated economy has not been controlled, and many localities and units are still blindly building projects and setting up stalls. Therefore, the Seventh Five-Year Plan adopted in March 1986 is divided into two stages: the first two years and the last three years. Adjustments were made two years ago, focusing on solving the problems of excessive investment in fixed assets and excessive growth of consumption funds.
However, after the slowdown of industrial production growth in the first quarter of 1986, many people think that the economic growth rate has declined, and strongly demand that monetary policy be relaxed to stimulate economic growth. In addition, 1986 was the first year of the "Seventh Five-Year Plan", and the enthusiasm of all localities to accelerate development was very high. Under various pressures, the original three-year adjustment plan did not continue, so in the macro-control process of 1986, the possibility of further overheating still lurks.
The third macro-control (1989 ~ 1990)
-"slam on the brakes" and "hard landing"
The third macro-control is aimed at inflation caused by 1987 to 1988 overheating. This is an important macro-control after China's reform and opening up.
The reason is that from 1979 to 1988, due to the implementation of the reform and opening up, the pent-up potential productivity has been liberated, and China's economy has achieved a rapid growth of almost 10 years, but there are more and more uncoordinated and unbalanced factors accumulated in the economy. In addition, at the beginning of 1988, a comprehensive price reform was prematurely decided under the circumstances that a large number of commodities were still in short supply and the inflation rate was objectively high. The prices of a few important commodities continue to be subject to macro-control by the state, with timely and appropriate adjustments; The prices of most commodities are completely open and regulated by the market. Then let go of the price of high-priced cigarettes and alcohol, and the market sales price will increase several times or even ten times. The retail price index of social goods has also risen to double digits, while the one-year savings deposit interest rate of banks is only 7.2%. The commodity price index and the bank interest rate were obviously upside down, and soon there was a nationwide commodity snapping phenomenon. At the same time, although the capital construction investment in the national budget was controlled to a certain extent at that time, the expansion of the scale of extra-budgetary investment was far from being controlled and strengthened.
In this case, the central government made an urgent decision to "manage the economic environment and rectify the economic order", resolutely carried out macro-control, comprehensively reduced demand and controlled prices. 1989 1 1 The Fifth Plenary Session of the 13th CPC Central Committee adopted the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Rectification and Deepening Reform", and further proposed that the rectification task should be basically completed in three years or more. So far, the third national economic adjustment since the reform and opening up has been effectively carried out.
Because the economy is out of control in a wide range, with strong momentum and great influence, the pace of regulation and control is relatively urgent, and the measures and efforts taken are also relatively large. It can be said that "sudden braking" is basically carried out in the form of administrative orders. In this way, in less than a year, the economy has resumed its basic balance. However, this macro-control has made great achievements, but there are also some shortcomings. Macro-control is now generally described as a "hard landing". Although there is no "machine crash", the body has suffered many inevitable injuries.
The fourth macro-control (1993 ~ 1996)
-"Soft landing" and deflation
The fourth macro-control is aimed at the inflation caused by overheating in the first half of 1992 to 1993. The reason is that after 1992, the enthusiasm of all parties to speed up economic construction is unprecedented. By the first half of 1993, there was obvious overheating, fixed assets investment nearly doubled year-on-year, and inflation rate exceeded double digits.
1In June, 1993, the central government issued the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on the Current Economic Situation and Strengthening Macro-control, and adopted 16 measures to formally start macro-control with the primary task of rectifying financial order and controlling inflation.
This adjustment is mainly to use credit, taxation and other economic means to slowly reverse the overheated economy. Although the key point is to control infrastructure investment, it is not to directly reduce investment and specific projects, but to strictly control the scale of bank credit and levy high investment direction adjustment tax. Under this premise, the specific pressure on what and how much is mainly decided by various departments and localities, so as to achieve the dual purpose of reducing the construction scale and improving the construction effect.
After only two years, the economy has basically returned to balance, and the economic growth rate has not dropped significantly. Therefore, it is described as a "soft landing", and the evaluation is significantly higher than the previous one.
But looking back, this time it was not enough. The most important thing is that the time for regulation has dragged on. Because judging from the overall economic situation at that time, by the second half of 1995, the regulation was basically in place. Starting from 1996, we will appropriately adjust macroeconomic policies, moderately relax and increase some capital construction investments, so as to expand employment and appropriately increase residents' consumption demand. However, we have not made such adjustments, but have continued to tighten. By the second half of 1997, the poor market sales were further aggravated, and the past inflation began to turn into deflation, and the price index dropped absolutely. It was not until 2003 that the price index changed from absolute decline to basically flat.
The fifth macro-control (from the second half of 2003 to 2005)
-Timely, moderate and moderate.
The cause of the fifth macro-control is that with the coming of the new century and the implementation of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, all parties hope to accelerate the pace of industrialization, urbanization and modernization. Coupled with the successful accession to the WTO, the breadth and depth of economic opening to the outside world have further expanded, the enthusiasm of various localities and departments for economic development has risen rapidly, and the economic situation has overheated rapidly.
In this way, macro-control began in the second half of 2003. This time it started earlier, but there was local overheating, but there was no overall overheating. The intensity is relatively moderate. Even in the key supervision areas, there is no "one size fits all" or "sudden braking" method to control them all, but there is security and pressure, and different situations are treated differently.
The scope of the measures is also appropriate, not indiscriminate and comprehensive tightening, but mainly grasping the two important "gates" of land and capital supply. In particular, it is more accurate to grasp the duration of regulation and control, that is, after the situation is basically stable, it is clear internally, "It seems that this macro-control has been basically in place, and generally there is no need to take drastic measures." So its effect can be said to be better than ever.
This adjustment has basically achieved "three adaptations", that is, timely, moderate and moderate, thus achieving a relatively comprehensive success. This is a very valuable experience.
The Sixth Macro-control (the second half of 2007 ~)
-Multi-pronged and comprehensive management
Since 2007, China's consumer price index (CPI) has remained high, and since July, CPI has remained at a high level of more than 5%. As an important basis for judging whether there is inflation, experts believe that 5% CPI is a key figure. CPI is relatively normal within 5%, which belongs to the green light area; CPI is between 5% and 9%, which is a yellow light area; More than 9% is serious inflation, especially in the red light district.
Therefore, facing the current economic situation and the types of inflation, the government has adopted a variety of economic policies to control it. In 2007, the central bank adjusted the deposit reserve ratio 10 times, and the increased deposit reserve ratio reached 14.5%, a record high in more than 20 years.
The Central Economic Work Conference in June 2007+June 2007 +2007 10 put forward strict monetary policy requirements, which strengthened the management of liquidity in the banking system and restrained the excessive growth of money and credit. It is clearly pointed out that prudent fiscal policy and tight monetary policy will be implemented in 2008, and the important role of monetary policy in macro-control will be further exerted, and the total amount and pace of money and credit will be strictly controlled.