It’s skyrocketing! Pig prices soared, sheep prices soared, and corn prices fell miserably! 3.1 day pig price
As the saying goes, there is no market that only goes up but not up, and there is no market that only goes up but not down.
In February, the pig market showed a volatile and strong trend, and pig farmers were about to escape from the quagmire of losses; the sheep price market continued to be bullish, and the market continued to rise, which was nicknamed the "Sheep Princess" , how high has it increased? Let's take a look together later.
The most worrying thing is corn. After the Spring Festival, it has been going downhill and is still falling.
So what is the situation in the market? When will pig prices and corn reach an inflection point? Let’s understand and discuss it together:
01. Pig prices rise aggressively
The price of pigs continues to fluctuate and rise. The price of pigs is charging towards the 8 yuan mark. On March 1, pig prices rose sharply. The market continues to rise, but the "quality" of the rise is insufficient, which is mainly reflected in two aspects:
First, the driving force for the rise is still insufficient. Pig prices in various provinces and cities across the country have dropped from 10 on February 28. The number of provinces and cities with rising prices only increased to 11, and the number of provinces that fell from only 8 dropped to 7.
Secondly, judging from the magnitude of the increase, the magnitude of the increase has also narrowed. Only two provinces, Guangdong and Jilin, saw an increase of 2 cents. The increase in other provinces was only about 1 cent, which is almost negligible. .
At present, the trend of live pigs is relatively strong, which is already relatively good, because it is currently the off-season for pork consumption. For pig farmers, it is worthwhile to be happy if the price can remain unchanged.
The current pig price is hitting the 8 yuan mark, and it is difficult to achieve it overnight. At this relatively sensitive price, the selling pressure will be great, so I personally feel that it is difficult for the average pig price to break through 8 yuan in the first half of March. Yuan mark, after a shock of 1 or 2 weeks, with tens of thousands of schools across the country reopening, residents' consumption gradually recovering, and the catering industry continuing to improve, the price of live pigs is likely to break through the cost line of 8.5 yuan/jin, and then gradually enter a profit mode.
02. The rise in sheep prices counterattacks
Speaking of sheep prices, many sheep farmers may have felt that recently, sheep prices have risen, and they finally see some hope, and now There are more and more people collecting sheep from all over the country. Not only the price has increased, but they also don’t have to worry about selling them.
It is understood that from last winter to now, the price of sheep has increased by more than 1 yuan in many places, and the increase in some places has reached 2 yuan. The mainstream quotation of fattening sheep in various places has increased from the original 13 or 14 yuan per pound. Now it costs 14 or 15 yuan, and in some places it has reached 16 yuan per pound. Overall, the market is getting better and better.
It is understood that the price of sheep in some areas is as follows: in Linfen, Shanxi, cashmere goat rams are priced at 23 yuan/jin; 110-jin fattening sheep in Huairen, Shanxi are 14.8 yuan/jin; in Handan, Hebei, fattening rams are priced at 23 yuan/jin; A 130-jin sheep weighs 17.2 yuan/jin; Hebei Tang County Han sheep skewers 14.0 yuan/jin, fine-wool sheep skewers 14.3 yuan/jin, Xinmin sheep 14.6 yuan/jin;
Tianjin Jizhou District cotton mutton mutton skewers 17.2 yuan/jin; 100-jin Jilin Shuangyang Han sheep male 18 yuan/jin; Hubei Zhongxiang Hu sheep fattening 15/jin; Henan Luoyang goat male 17 yuan/jin; Sanmenxia fattening sheep 13.5 yuan/jin; Anhui Huainan fattening Hu sheep 15.5 yuan/jin for over 100 kilograms; 16.0 yuan/jin for fattened Hu sheep weighing 140 kilograms in Woyang area; 13 yuan/jin for Shandong Yanwo small-tailed Han sheep strings, 13 yuan/jin for fine-wool sheep strings, and 13.4 yuan/jin for Xinmin sheep; < /p>
The fattened Hu sheep in Jiaxing, Zhejiang are 16.8 yuan/jin; the fattened mutton sheep in Tongguan, Shaanxi Province are 12 yuan, and the female strips are 13 yuan; the culled ewes at Sanying Market in Guyuan, Ningxia are 11.5-12 yuan/jin, and the culled rams are 13.5-14.5 yuan/jin. Yuan/jin.
Judging from the quotations in various places, the price of sheep has increased. The reasons are as follows:
First, during the three-year special period, many farmers were prevented from going out to work and joined the sheep raising industry. As prices fell again and again, many people could no longer hold on and left the sheep raising market, and the number of sheep in stock declined.
The second is to analyze from the perspective of the sheep cycle. The number of sheep raised has continued to rise since 2018, reaching a high point in 2021. The price will drop to a low point in 2022, and the market will most likely enter an upward cycle in 2023. .
Third, the recent rise in pig and pork prices, coupled with the high breeding costs, has also provided certain support for sheep prices.
On the whole, sheep prices are trending well, but we should not expect too much in the short term because it is still the off-season for consumption and excess production capacity has not been digested. The market situation in the second half of the year is worth looking forward to.
03. Corn plummeted
As the weather has heated up in recent days, it has become more and more difficult to store corn. As the number of trucks arriving at the door of corn processing companies increases, Recently, the corn market in various places has remained sluggish, and various companies have lowered their purchase prices in turn.
On February 28, 15 companies in Shandong lowered their price: Zouping Ronghai fell by 0.2 cents, to 1.458 yuan/catty; Huimin Chunhui fell by 0.3 cents, to 1.437 yuan/catty; Binzhou Jinhui fell by 0.4 cents, 1.425 yuan/jin; Pingyuan Fuyang fell 0.55 points to 1.405 yuan/jin; Yucheng Baolingbao fell 0.3 points to 1.407 yuan/jin; Feicheng Fukuan fell 0.2 points to 1.42 yuan/jin; Northeast Xiangrui fell 0.5 points to 1.427 Yuan/jin;
Changle Shengtai fell 0.5 points to 1.41 yuan/jin; Chengwu Dadi fell 0.2 points to 1.433 yuan/jin; Dazecheng Biotech fell 0.2 points to 1.435 yuan/jin; Rizhao Gold He Boyuan fell 0.5 points to 1.465 yuan/jin; Linqing Golden Corn fell 0.3 points to 1.387 yuan/jin; Zaozhuang Hengren Industry and Trade fell 0.5 points to 1.435 yuan/jin; Yishui Dadi fell 0.2 points to 1.443 yuan/jin; Yishui Luzhou fell 0.5 cents to 1.445 yuan/jin.
Hebei Xingtai Guangyu starch fell 0.5 cents to 1.405 yuan/jin.
Another three companies raised their purchase prices: Shijiazhuang Derui starch rose by 0.5 cents, to 1.405 yuan/jin; Henan Hebi Feitian starch rose by 0.5 cents, to 1.423 yuan/jin; Jilin fuel ethanol rose by 1 cent, 1.375 yuan/jin.
At present, the weak adjustment of corn will continue in the short term, mainly due to:
First, the weather is getting warmer, with the highest temperature reaching above 0 degrees in most parts of the Northeast. , the preservation ability of corn is increased, and the amount of corn on the market is increased.
Second, due to the impact of traders not making much money from purchasing corn in 2022, and some even losing money, many middlemen have a strong wait-and-see attitude and feel that there is not much profit margin for purchasing and storage at the current price. There is no profit, and I am still waiting for further decline before buying the bottom.
Third, there are rumors in the market that 18 million tons of rice will be sold in March. If the rumors are true, it will have a certain impact on the corn market.
Generally speaking, March is an important time to emerge from the haze after the corn shock. It is hoped that there will be a touch point due to many factors such as the bottoming out of corn sales, the expansion of state reserve purchases, and the recovery of pig prices. The turning point for the rebound and rise after the bottom appears.