How can the COVID-19 epidemic end quickly and absolutely effectively?
How will the COVID-19 epidemic end? If this question had been raised a month ago, in the prediction of infectious disease experts, "the epidemic situation is under control" is also one of the possibilities. However, as the epidemic has become a global epidemic, the possibility of this optimistic scenario is increasingly slim.
Of course, we should still have hope, but we should also prepare for the worst. Based on the judgment of scientists from all over the world, it is unlikely that there will be a big mutation in COVID-19, and there are several possibilities for the epidemic to end.
Mode 1: global containment of the epidemic.
Earlier, William Schaffner, director of the National Infectious Diseases Foundation of the United States, gave an optimistic example in an interview with the media, saying that the SARS coronavirus epidemic similar to that in COVID-19 in history had been completely extinguished. In addition, in China, South Korea and other places, the COVID-19 epidemic has been effectively controlled.
Epidemiologists and virologists believe that in the United States and Europe, the epidemic has developed to the point where it cannot be completely contained. In addition, unlike SARS, mild and asymptomatic COVID-19 infected people can also spread the virus, which further increases the difficulty of control.
Shu Yuelong, Chairman of Virology Branch of Chinese Medical Association and Dean of School of Public Health (Shenzhen) of Sun Yat-sen University, also pointed out in an online interview organized by China Association for Science and Technology that "the SARS epidemic is mainly caused by hospital infection and some super communicators, and it is easy to implement containment strategies; However, the COVID-19 epidemic has spread widely in communities around the world, which has increased the difficulty of implementing the containment strategy. "
With the epidemic becoming a global epidemic, it seems that the probability of being completely eliminated worldwide is very small.
At present, the epidemic situation in East Asia has slowed down, and Europe has become the new "epicenter" of the epidemic.
However, this does not mean that the areas with mild epidemics give up their efforts to contain the epidemic. Countries should not "contain" or "alleviate" the epidemic, but should do both. All countries must adopt a "comprehensive and mixed strategy" to control the local epidemic, and the work of controlling the spread of the epidemic in various countries will also affect other countries and even the whole world.
Method 2: Become another "common cold"
The virus continues to spread in the population, but after a large number of recovered people gain immunity (group immunity), the virus gradually loses the characteristics of rapid spread. By then, COVID-19 may eventually be listed as another common cold virus, similar to the popular coronavirus 229E and OC43. Although the virus will always exist in this case, it may no longer be an "epidemic".